Wednesday, September 21, 2016

re: Nate Silver's forecast

DemocratsJoin us.
We only have 48 days left until Election Day. Help us make every one count -- pitch in $3 or more right now:

Diane --

Nate Silver -- the statistician who correctly predicted the result of the 2012 election in all 50 states -- keeps a running, real-time forecast of this election. It's designed to answer one simple question: "who will win the presidency?"

Here's how it looked on August 20th:

August 20th -- load image

And here's how it looked yesterday:

Yesterday -- load image

In the span of just one month, Donald Trump turned a big deficit in the polls into a two-in-five chance of winning this election.

Take a look at the "tipping point" states. We know we have to win these states, and they've also got some critical Senate and gubernatorial races. Three -- Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida -- have moved into Trump's column and the rest are a lighter shade of blue.

If this trend continues, we risk going into the final weeks of this election with things looking more in Donald Trump's favor than in ours.

Diane, you can help turn the tide right now.

If you pitch in $3 or more, we can immediately put your donation to use on critical work like contacting undecided voters, getting supporters who are voting by mail to return their ballots, and getting ready for the first push to get people to the polls as states like Iowa and Wisconsin start voting.

This could not be a more important moment. Will you step up today?

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Eric Walker
Deputy Communications Director
Democratic National Committee

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